Best Bali Real Estate News: Another spruiker pumps fake Perth housing rebound

Sunday 9 September 2018

Another spruiker pumps fake Perth housing rebound

Best Asia Real Estate Editor's Comments:

As my readers are well aware I've been predicting a downturn in major cities in Australia except for Perth which already had a substantial downturn and according to one source I have may be turning around.

The article below questions whether that's reality.

To get the real reality I'm going to fly down to Perth on Christmas day and enjoy the Hoffman Cup to hopefully see Roger Federer play live along with some of the top upcoming stars in the tennis world .

While I'm there I will definitely check out the real estate market and give you feedback on whether the turnaround is real or not.

By Unconventional Economist in Australian Property
at 11:45 am on September 10, 2018 | 8 comments

By Leith van Onselen
Domain economist, Trent Wiltshire, is the latest calling a “renaissance” for the Perth housing market:

After years in the doldrums, Western Australia is showing signs of life.

… new Domain research shows that WA’s beleaguered property market could have bottomed out. Better economic conditions are driving the recovery: the big miners are committing to new projects, commodity prices are higher, WA’s population growth is picking up and job prospects in the state have improved…

Domain data [shows]… while house prices in Perth are still declining in annual terms, the rate of decline is slowing and nearing zero. Unit prices, on the other hand, are now increasing — up 1.7 per cent over the year to the June — but are still below their 2014 peak…

Domain’s “asking rents” measure for Perth houses has fallen by only 3 per cent over the year to June 2018 and asking rents for Perth units are unchanged over the year…

Although not all data is positive — house prices are still falling, home loan arrears in WA are rising and home loan commitments are falling — most data indicates the WA property market is emerging from the slump that followed the mining boom. And with house prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne, it may be that property investors once again start to look west.

CoreLogic’s latest hedonic dwelling values index shows that quarterly Perth dwelling value losses have accelerated to -1.9%:

Whereas annual losses are still stuck around 2.1% and have barely budged over the past year:

Western Australia’s economy appears to have taken another leg down, with yesterday’s national accounts recording a second consecutive quarterly decline in final demand, falling by 0.4% in the June quarter:

Whereas annual final demand growth slid to 0.3%, below population growth:

Moreover, while dwelling construction has fallen heavily across Western Australia over recent years, it is still running well ahead of population growth:

As shown above, Western Australia’s housing supply rose by 19,400 in the year to March 2018, far more than is needed to house the 21,400 increase in the state’s unemployment.

Finally, capital expenditures continue to fall across Western Australia, which will weigh on ‘jobs and growth’:

Perth’s housing recovery will arrive eventually, but there is no evidence that we are there yet.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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